Optimal bet sizing is advantage. bankroll.7. So, for example, if your advantage at TC 3 is 1% under a given rule set (advantage per true count can be determined through simulation or cite the rules you are playing for and I will find that information for you) and your bankroll is $10,000 your optimal bet is $10,000. 1%.7 or $70. Is there a certain way you should play blackjack to increase your chances of winning? You bet there is! Although this card game is considered gambling, or a game of luck, there is basic blackjack strategy that someone can follow to get the best odds possible of beating the dealer. If you had the decision.
BETTING AT BLACKJACK
By Henry Tamburin
One of the most often asked question from blackjack players is 'how should I bet?' You've got several options and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.
Flat bet
This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also players feel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.
Here are the facts on flat betting. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against the skilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800 worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you can expect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.
Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player's bankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.
Progressive betting
This is where things get interesting. Progressive betting means varying your bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than always betting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet depending upon whether the hand you just played won or lose.
Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on next hand to $20.
There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand but as soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.
Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course what they don't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.
There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progression are dangerous and you never consider using them
There is also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. The creativity of progressive bettors is never ending.
First of all, betting progressions do not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (or lost) and you chance of winning the next hand. In other words using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So betting progressions in the long run don't work in the sense that won't improve your long-term chances of winning.
But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using a betting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10 bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casinos expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. In other words a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.
Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduce your average bet to $10 per hour and cut you hourly theoretical loss rate in half.
But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works? That my friends is as card counting.
With card counting you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. So unlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small value cards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards and the edge shifts from dealer to player. This would be the best time to bet more.
But I'm realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count card counting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) first revealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successful win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.
So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about 2 years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack training software (www.HandheldBlackjack.com). He spent the better part of 2 years and 36+ billion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is nothing short of revolutionary - Speed Count.
Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Count will give you a verifiable advantage over the casino. Frank SCoblete and I teach Speed Count in a weekend course. For more information visit www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-866-WIN-BJ21.
So now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.
For as long as people have been gambling, players have been trying to develop a system that will allow them to gain the edge. Some of the greatest minds in history have tried to devise a system for beating the casino games. Although he was not a gambler, in 1654 French mathematician Blaise Pascal was asked by a friend for help with a wagering proposition. Pascal became interested in the philosophical problem of how to make decisions involving uncertain events. His studies lead to his writing of Traite du Triangle Arethmetique which was the first book on probability theory.
Albert Einstein studied the problem of how to beat the game of Roulette. After spending time on the problem he concluded that it could not be done and he was quoted as saying, 'The only way to beat Roulette is to steal the money when the dealer's not looking.' In a sense, he was correct. His point was that there is no way to employ a mathematical configuration of bets to overcome the house edge.
When To Raise Your Bet In Blackjack Game
Gambling systems based on raising and lowering your bets are sometimes referred to as money management strategies. Most of these systems fall into two categories; a negative betting progression, or a positive betting progression.
Negative Progressions
A negative progression system has you increase your bets after a loss in hopes of getting back to even after a win. These negative systems are extremely dangerous because you can lose your entire bankroll after a series of losses. The most popular negative betting system is the Martingale where you double your bet after every loss. This system has caused more players to go broke than any other betting system, yet many players will still give it a try.
Positive Progressions
The ultimate betting strategy is to bet more when you are winning and less when you are losing. This is easier said than done because you never know when a streak occurs until it ends. A simple way to bet more when you are winning is to slowly progress your bets after a win and decrease your bet to the minimum when you lose. This is known as a positive progressive system. If you are going to try any type of betting system, you should only try a positive progression. With a positive progression, you cannot get wiped out by a series of losses.
Paroli Betting System
The Paroli system is a positive progression system that is designed to take advantage of winning streaks. You start by choosing a predetermined number of wins in the progression. For example, if you decide to use three wins as your progression. Here is what the progression would be:
You place your first $5 bet and win $5. You place your second bet of $10. You win with the second bet and place your third bet of $20. You win with the third bet and this is your stopping point for the Paroli betting system. You will then proceed back to the original bet of $5 and continue to use the system throughout the game. You may try for four or five wins in a row but it will be harder to complete the sequence. If you were to lose at any time you go back to your original starting bet and begin the sequence over again
One Half Up
This is a very popular positive progression system. You do not increase your bet until you win two bets in a row, then you keep increasing your bet by one-half of your original bet. Here is an example.
When To Raise Your Bet In Blackjack Games
You make a $10 bet and win. You are now even so you don’t progress yet. You make another $10 bet and win. You are now ahead $10. Your next bet is $15. You are progressing but you still have a profit of $5. If you win the $15 bet your next bet is $20. If you lose you go back to $10. You still have a profit of $15.
It Can Work
When To Raise Your Bet In Blackjack For Real
There has been much debate about whether or not a positive progression system will increase your profits when you gamble. Many math experts say that in the long run, it will not make you any more money than if you had bet the same amount each time. However, since you are only playing for a limited amount of time a positive progression may win you more if you catch a lucky winning streak.
When To Raise Your Bet In Blackjack Machine
You can use a positive progression when you are playing any casino game but it works best in the game of Craps. There are many times when a shooter will have a long roll and you can use a progression to increase your winnings.
A positive progression cannot hurt you because you are only increasing your bet after a win. If you feel that you want to try a betting system, this is the one to use. The secret to successfully using a positive progression is to make sure you collect enough winning to make a small profit before you start to raise your bets. Many players will raise their bets before they have locked up a profit and when they lose they have not won any money. Make sure to collect a few winning bets first